March 8th, 2011
|03:05 am - Predictions on the Growth of the Global Middle Class|
Here's a fascinating paper predicting significant growth in the global middle class over the next 20 years. Also, here's an shorter article about this paper that pulls out the high points from the first article.
The predictions include such information as the fact that the global middle class has been growing faster than the global population for a while now. Today, 28% of the world's population are middle class, and this is predicted to rise to around 50% in 2022, and almost two thirds by 2030. Given that more than half of the human population now lives in cities, and people in cities are almost always wealthier than people living in rural areas, this makes a great deal of sense. Of course, exactly how this happens is not all that unexpected – the big growth in the middle class happens exactly where you'd expect it to – East and South Asia, with the big winners being India, and China, which between them contain close to 40% of the world's population. Between these nations and the current first world nations, that's approximately half of the world's population. Of course, if all this happens, which seems moderately likely, there's still a lot of people in Central and South American, the Middle East, and especially in Africa, who are not even close to middle class, but going from a bit more than one in four people being in middle class, to almost two thirds is a very impressive change. In addition to joy, my reaction on reading this is to consider that as a species we may finally be growing up a bit.
As a side note, the paper use what seems to me to be a reasonable definition of middle class - households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person.
Current Mood: pleased
|Date:||March 8th, 2011 03:09 pm (UTC)|| |
That's fascinating -- I hope that contributes to a lower birthrate overall.
I have to say that sounds heartening, though I'm concerned about the environmental impact.
|Date:||March 8th, 2011 10:28 pm (UTC)|| |
I definitely think this will help with the birthrate. Thankfully, the worldwide birthrate is already dropping & I think our species has dodged the overpopulation bullet.
I'm concerned about the environmental impact.
Definitely - I think the first step is serious increases in sustainable energy production.
That article's definition of middle class seems to match mine. Most Americans' definition of "middle class" would be at least upper-middle class to me.