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Partisanship in the Democratic Party - comparing polls then & now - Synchronicity swirls and other foolishness

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May 1st, 2016

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05:13 pm - Partisanship in the Democratic Party - comparing polls then & now
I've heard a fair amount recently about how between 25% & 33% of people who have or will vote for Bernie Sanders in primaries won't vote for Hillary Clinton in the general election when she becomes the candidate (it's not really a question of if at this point). So, I decided to look back at 2008, to see how opnions were going in the Spring when it looked likely that Obama would be the candidate, but it wasn't yet certain. I found to articles on Fivethirtyeight.com

The Clinton voters who won’t vote for Obama

The Clinton Voters who won’t vote for Obama, Part II

As stated in one of the articles:
56% of Clinton voters report they are not likely to vote for Barack Obama in the general election. As Rasmussen reports, “A month ago, 45% of Clinton voters said they were not likely to vote for Obama against McCain.”
IOW, I'm now not remotely worried that Clinton will have a serious problem with this, anymore than Obama had a problem with this in 2008.

(1 comment | Leave a comment)


[User Picture]
Date:May 3rd, 2016 08:28 pm (UTC)
To be fair, these are extremely different groups of voters, although they share some overlap.

But, to also be fair, you're right.

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